THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF PARISBA 3070 – OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTCase 2 due 15 March 2016 at 10:00This assignment is to be done individually or in groups of two.Upload your Word document to Blackboard/SafeAssign (more details under “Assignments”). Send me your complete Excel workbook by email.Mignon CosmeticsFollowing is demand data for a relatively new cosmetic produced by Mignon SA. The company’s management has hired you to develop a forecasting model to enable them to better plan their production runs.Quarter Demand2013 I 800II 1550III 1400IV 15002014 I 2300II 3200III 2600IV 30002015 I 3750II 4450III 3900IV 48001. Graph the demand data.2. Develop a naive model and a simple moving average model. Fit an exponential smoothing model that minimizes MAD to these data. Use Excel, creating your equations carefully and properly.3. Should you consider other error measures? Why or why not?4. Attempt to reduce the overall MAD (for the 12 periods of data) by using other models. Feel free to develop models or choose models from other sources than your text. Use Excel, carefully organizing and labelling your data and the models.5. Fit a trend line to the data. What is the equation for this line? What is your forecast for period 13? How well does this model work?6. Develop a model using seasonal indices. Using any technique(s) you feel appropriate, forecast demand for periods 13-17. 7. Graph your resulting models and compare them to your actual data.8. Explain why you proceeded as you did. Are there qualitative aspects you should consider in developing/recommending a forecast?9. What might this product be? Explain.10. What model do you recommend to Mignon?

THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF PARISBA 3070 – OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTCase 2 due 15 March 2016 at 10:00This assignment is to be done individually or in groups of two.Upload your Word document to Blackboard/SafeAssign (more details under “Assignments”). Send me your complete Excel workbook by email.Mignon CosmeticsFollowing is demand data for a relatively new cosmetic produced by Mignon SA. The company’s management has hired you to develop a forecasting model to enable them to better plan their production runs.Quarter Demand2013 I 800II 1550III 1400IV 15002014 I 2300II 3200III 2600IV 30002015 I 3750II 4450III 3900IV 48001. Graph the demand data.2. Develop a naive model and a simple moving average model. Fit an exponential smoothing model that minimizes MAD to these data. Use Excel, creating your equations carefully and properly.3. Should you consider other error measures? Why or why not?4. Attempt to reduce the overall MAD (for the 12 periods of data) by using other models. Feel free to develop models or choose models from other sources than your text. Use Excel, carefully organizing and labelling your data and the models.5. Fit a trend line to the data. What is the equation for this line? What is your forecast for period 13? How well does this model work?6. Develop a model using seasonal indices. Using any technique(s) you feel appropriate, forecast demand for periods 13-17. 7. Graph your resulting models and compare them to your actual data.8. Explain why you proceeded as you did. Are there qualitative aspects you should consider in developing/recommending a forecast?9. What might this product be? Explain.10. What model do you recommend to Mignon?

THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF PARISBA 3070 – OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTCase 2 due 15 March 2016 at 10:00This assignment is to be done individually or in groups of two.Upload your Word document to Blackboard/SafeAssign (more details under “Assignments”). Send me your complete Excel workbook by email.Mignon CosmeticsFollowing is demand data for a relatively new cosmetic produced by Mignon SA. The company’s management has hired you to develop a forecasting model to enable them to better plan their production runs.Quarter Demand2013 I 800II 1550III 1400IV 15002014 I 2300II 3200III 2600IV 30002015 I 3750II 4450III 3900IV 48001. Graph the demand data.2. Develop a naive model and a simple moving average model. Fit an exponential smoothing model that minimizes MAD to these data. Use Excel, creating your equations carefully and properly.3. Should you consider other error measures? Why or why not?4. Attempt to reduce the overall MAD (for the 12 periods of data) by using other models. Feel free to develop models or choose models from other sources than your text. Use Excel, carefully organizing and labelling your data and the models.5. Fit a trend line to the data. What is the equation for this line? What is your forecast for period 13? How well does this model work?6. Develop a model using seasonal indices. Using any technique(s) you feel appropriate, forecast demand for periods 13-17. 7. Graph your resulting models and compare them to your actual data.8. Explain why you proceeded as you did. Are there qualitative aspects you should consider in developing/recommending a forecast?9. What might this product be? Explain.10. What model do you recommend to Mignon?